Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2588…b3ff crypto 676 markets active 2d ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,025 (-10%) realized −$2,047 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%252W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days+$84
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$2,159
other 17% −$35
economics 2% −$4
tech 1% +$4
politics 1% −$2
sports 1% −$4
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 13 -12.6% -21.0% 23% 15% +5.6%
≤90d 51 -48.8% -53.7% 16% 10% -18.1%
all 673 -7.2% -16.0% 37% 34% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 34% -20.1%
10% -24.0% 33% -27.8%
15% -31.4% 30% -34.8%
20% -38.1% 26% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized−$2,047
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses252 / 421
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)673 / 676
History coverage243d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $454 $466 +$12 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+20%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $25 $28 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $112 +$99 +88%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 02 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 01 $63 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 5 - 1 Real Oviedo? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $16 −$2 -10%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 29 $13 −$2 -16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 29 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 29 $1,285 −$53 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $53 −$1 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 28 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $100 −$25 -25%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 21 $38 −$27 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $146 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 26 $40 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 36h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 6d
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 7d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $54 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $16 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $112 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 14d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d SELL Yes 45¢ $11 15d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d SELL Yes 48¢ $10 15d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d SELL Yes 48¢ $4 15d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 48¢ $27 15d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 25¢ $32 15d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 25¢ $29 15d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 25¢ $33 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 17d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 19d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 21¢ $4 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.37 · official $542.37 (match) · 1765 history records