Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x2587…5179 finance 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-14%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$25
tech 26% +$2
world 24% −$21
finance 21% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 4 -14.5% -22.6% 25% 0% -21.4%
≤90d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 0% -24.3%
all 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 0% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 0% -24.3%
10% -36.4% 0% -31.5%
15% -42.5% 0% -38.2%
20% -48.1% 0% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage75d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $113 −$7 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $114 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 30 $86 −$28 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $105 −$21 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records