Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2586…794e
weather · 74 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$47 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)59 / 74
History coverage169d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 15 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -87%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? Apr 17 $0 $0 +133%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 18? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12? Apr 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? Apr 05 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? Apr 04 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 3? Apr 02 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on April 1? Apr 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1? Apr 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24? Mar 24 $11 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Nymburk vs. Pallacanestro Trieste Mar 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 18? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 18? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 18? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: WLGaming Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 20? Mar 21 $1 +$2 +245%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 20? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17? Mar 17 $2 +$2 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 17? Mar 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +136%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 14? Mar 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% −$26
weather 25% −$7
world 19% −$21
crypto 16% −$10
politics 6% −$8
sports 3% −$2
economics 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? SELL No 1¢ $0 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? BUY No 0¢ $0 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 20? BUY No 0¢ $0 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 62d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 62d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 62d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 65d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 66d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 66d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 66d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 67d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 67d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -96.2% -96.6% 0% 0% -98.8%
≤30d 5 -96.2% -96.6% 0% 0% -98.8%
≤90d 48 -50.4% -55.1% 27% 15% -59.0%
all 59 -32.4% -38.8% 37% 17% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 17% -32.4%
10% -44.7% 15% -38.8%
15% -50.0% 15% -44.8%
20% -54.9% 14% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.83 · official $33.83 (match) · 152 history records