Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2584…8018 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,594 (-57%) realized −$2,589 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,563
world 22% −$980
sports 21% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -73.1%
≤30d 13 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -73.1%
≤90d 13 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -73.1%
all 13 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -73.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.4% 23% -73.1%
10% ← realistic here -57.8% 23% -75.7%
15% -61.9% 23% -78.0%
20% -65.7% 23% -80.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$324 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized−$2,589
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $700 $694 −$6 (-1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $816 −$800 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $496 −$491 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $297 +$503 +170%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $220 −$216 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $867 −$857 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $250 −$248 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $92 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $708 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $184 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $816 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $92 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $404 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $800 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $297 12h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $126 19h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $118 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $182 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $179 20h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 20h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 20h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $149 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $29 21h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.21 · official $786.22 (match) · 23 history records