Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

25 0x2581…4df6 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$25 (-9%) realized −$24 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$98per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-28.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-20.4%	-28.0%	50%	0%	-25.1%
≤30d	2	-20.4%	-28.0%	50%	0%	-25.1%
≤90d	2	-20.4%	-28.0%	50%	0%	-25.1%
all	2	-20.4%	-28.0%	50%	0%	-25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.0%	0%	-25.1%
10%	-34.9%	0%	-32.3%
15%	-41.2%	0%	-38.8%
20%	-47.0%	0%	-44.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.2 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$128

Realized−$24

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$98

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24?	No	86¢	86¢	$129	$128	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$91	+$7	+8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?	Jun 20	$72	−$35	-48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24?	BUY No	86¢	$7	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24?	BUY No	86¢	$123	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	SELL No	98¢	$98	3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	BUY No	91¢	$91	37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?	SELL No	39¢	$37	45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?	BUY No	71¢	$72	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.25 · official $128.25 (match) · 6 history records