Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x2580…0c77 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%31W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$8
politics 35% −$2
other 14% +$5
sports 12% +$2
tech 2% +$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 3% -9.6%
all 77 -1.7% -11.0% 40% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage489d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $147 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $106 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -13%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $147 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $160 +$3 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $145 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $165 −$2 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $147 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $325 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $113 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $26 −$8 -33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $115 −$3 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $113 +$2 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $13 +$1 +8%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $1,036 +$1 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $941 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $941 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $944 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $944 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $100 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $49 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $147 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $163 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $160 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $116 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $145 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $160 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $160 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $160 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $161 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.52 · official $147.44 (match) · 225 history records