Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
25 0x257f…6833 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% $0
other 10% +$5
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 67% +22.0%
≤30d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 67% +22.0%
≤90d 15 -13.2% -21.4% 67% 53% -5.7%
all 15 -13.2% -21.4% 67% 53% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 53% -5.7%
10% -29.0% 33% -14.7%
15% -35.8% 20% -22.9%
20% -42.1% 13% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage54d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 24 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 24 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 24 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 24 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $14 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records