Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x257f…cbaf crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$282 (+10%) realized +$319 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 66L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day128.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 44% +9.5%
≤30d 126 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 44% +9.5%
≤90d 126 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 44% +9.5%
all 126 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 44% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 44% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 44% -1.0%
15% -15.5% 42% -10.6%
20% -23.8% 37% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day128.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 10¢ 2¢ $44 $7 −$37 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$50 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $65 +$150 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$165 +362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$24 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $46 +$70 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$13 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$12 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$67 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$59 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$31 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$65 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$64 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$26 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$9 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$18 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$18 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.62 · official $139.01 · 825 history records