Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x257d…a183 economics 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$421 (+8%) realized +$1,119 · open −$698
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$280
14 days+$403
30 days+$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$417
economics 33% −$307
world 26% +$1,231
politics 7% −$142
sports 0% −$7
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.1% -25.9% 25% 25% +21.0%
≤30d 20 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 30% +13.7%
≤90d 43 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% +16.3%
all 46 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 33% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 33% +17.2%
10% -19.7% 30% +6.0%
15% -27.5% 26% -4.2%
20% -34.6% 22% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$32 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$887
Realized+$1,119
Unrealized−$698
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 54
History coverage340d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 30¢ 18¢ $445 $273 −$172 (-39%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $317 $176 −$141 (-44%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $219 $138 −$82 (-37%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $150 $124 −$26 (-17%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 38¢ $110 $91 −$19 (-17%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $275 $49 −$226 (-82%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $49 $20 −$29 (-59%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 19 $255 +$414 +162%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $80 −$45 -56%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $110 −$93 -85%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $159 −$122 -76%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $10 −$4 -39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $47 −$25 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $160 +$163 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$140 +140%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $170 +$53 +31%
ECB rate hike in 2026? May 29 $81 −$55 -68%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $50 −$33 -65%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 27 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 27 $31 −$23 -74%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 23 $373 +$135 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $245 +$114 +47%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 −$9 -87%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $60 −$17 -29%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $114 +$488 +426%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $11 −$2 -17%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? May 08 $73 −$33 -45%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $30 +$38 +128%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha May 01 $92 −$88 -96%
Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in April? Apr 30 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? Apr 30 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $10 +$59 +594%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $36 −$25 -69%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $132 −$132 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 21 $110 +$133 +121%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $35 −$19 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $212 +$192 +91%
Is Jeffrey Epstein alive? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 24 $258 −$116 -45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 24 $150 +$28 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Mar 06 $4 −$1 -33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $49 +$54 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 29¢ $313 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $6 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 26¢ $330 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $17 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $17 4d
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 29¢ $259 6d
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 6d
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 7¢ $31 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $31 6d
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $298 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $240 7d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $110 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $111 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $111 9d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 10d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $170 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.22 · official $885.68 (match) · 290 history records