Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

25 0x257c…a408 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1,309 (+15%) realized +$1,578 · open −$269

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate90%9W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$602per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$46est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$760

30 days+$1,396

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+11.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	10	+23.4%	+11.6%	90%	70%	+6.4%
≤90d	10	+23.4%	+11.6%	90%	70%	+6.4%
all	10	+23.4%	+11.6%	90%	70%	+6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.6%	70%	+6.4%
10%	+1.0%	50%	-3.8%
15%	-8.8%	40%	-13.1%
20%	-17.7%	10%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$158 vs −$28 · ×5.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×50.16 per $1 lost it wins $50.16

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$831

Realized+$1,578

Unrealized−$269

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses9 / 1

Est. fees paid−$46

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 15

History coverage16d

Avg bet$602

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs	OG	76¢	57¢	$300	$225	−$75 (-25%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	MOUZ	81¢	58¢	$300	$217	−$83 (-28%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	OG	60¢	54¢	$200	$180	−$20 (-10%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner	OG	77¢	57¢	$200	$149	−$51 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner	Prestige	87¢	54¢	$100	$62	−$38 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Jun 13	$384	+$182	+47%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$202	+$115	+57%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 11	$902	+$65	+7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 11	$2,002	+$32	+2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 08	$2,006	+$229	+11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 08	$303	+$138	+46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Jun 07	$502	+$81	+16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	Jun 07	$807	+$379	+47%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	Jun 07	$101	−$28	-28%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner	Jun 06	$705	+$203	+29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	BUY OG	76¢	$302	17m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	BUY OG	60¢	$202	21m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner	BUY OG	77¢	$201	29m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Prestige	87¢	$100	1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	BUY MOUZ	81¢	$302	1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL Gen.G	94¢	$566	9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY Gen.G	63¢	$384	9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	SELL Gen.G	100¢	$317	9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	BUY Gen.G	63¢	$202	9d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	SELL KT Rolster Challengers	100¢	$967	11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	SELL KT Rolster Challengers	99¢	$2,033	11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	93¢	$902	11d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	97¢	$2,002	11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	88¢	$1,004	13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	91¢	$1,003	13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$441	13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	68¢	$303	14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	BUY G2 Esports	86¢	$502	14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA	100¢	$1,187	15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA	43¢	$73	15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	58¢	$101	15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	80¢	$302	15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	70¢	$303	15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	52¢	$203	15d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA	100¢	$908	16d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	77¢	$705	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.42 · official $844.89 · 28 history records