Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x257b…c08b
sports · 522 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$97 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses270 / 246
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions6
Markets (closed)516 / 522
History coverage134d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 516 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,087
7 days−$901
14 days−$762
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 86¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 60¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $14 +$10 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$93
other 0% +$12
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $10 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $14 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $7 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $10 25h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $10 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $14 25h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $15 37h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 20¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $10 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $17 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $17 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $14 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $14 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $14 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $9 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 61¢ $9 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $12 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $14 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $15 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -61.7% -65.3% 19% 18% -66.8%
≤30d 193 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 43% -21.8%
≤90d 400 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 52% -10.1%
all 516 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 52% -7.7%
10% -14.8% 52% -16.5%
15% -23.0% 52% -24.6%
20% -30.6% 51% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.56 · official $64.56 (match) · 1072 history records