Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x257b…2c55 crypto 97 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate70%68W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 38% -11.4%
≤30d 97 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 47% -9.9%
≤90d 97 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 47% -9.9%
all 97 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 47% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 47% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 28% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 10% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses68 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$11 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records