Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2576…0670 other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,887 (+1%) realized +$1,888 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,254per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$98
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$113
politics 40% −$99
sports 6% +$2,081
culture 3% −$8
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -10.6% -19.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 99 -2.4% -11.7% 6% 2% -8.6%
all 156 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 10% -8.7%
10% -18.3% 10% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 8% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,613) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$8 · ×12.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$1,888
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,254
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $358 $357 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,067 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,713 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $819 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,271 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $907 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,709 −$5 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,455 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $8,102 −$12 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,533 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,699 −$5 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $323 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $489 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,334 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,313 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $974 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $5,120 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,875 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,340 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $6,898 −$7 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $2,927 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $760 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $761 3h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $688 5h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $689 6h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $873 47h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $874 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $756 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $870 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $818 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $819 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $934 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $935 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $358 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,228 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $900 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $901 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,393 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $718 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $719 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $805 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $806 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $973 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.12 · official $357.12 (match) · 523 history records