Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2576…b2f2 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,788 (-1%) realized −$1,788 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%41W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,310per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$47
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$93
other 39% +$39
sports 13% −$1,543
world 3% −$38
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% −$178
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +3.1% -6.7% 12% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 79 -9.2% -17.9% 10% 6% -11.6%
all 141 +5.5% -4.6% 29% 14% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 14% -10.4%
10% -13.7% 14% -19.0%
15% -22.0% 13% -26.8%
20% -29.7% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,652) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$693
Realized−$1,788
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses41 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,310
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $444 $444 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $249 $249 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,822 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $3,101 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,186 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,464 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,110 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,515 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,242 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $5,667 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,560 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,385 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $63 +$75 +119%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,375 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,273 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $85 +$46 +55%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $390 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $513 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $600 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,792 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,702 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,348 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $947 −$2 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $69 +$67 +97%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,101 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $6,531 −$7 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $87 +$38 +44%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,073 −$2 -0%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $445 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $413 4h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $414 6h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 29h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 30h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $295 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,150 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,151 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,098 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,099 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,009 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,075 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,108 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,110 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $997 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $998 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,158 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,160 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,221 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,223 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,335 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $249 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,337 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.48 · official $693.48 (match) · 515 history records