trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +21.0% | +9.5% | 100% | 100% | +9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -15.0% | -23.1% | 55% | 36% | +9.9% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -8.6% | -17.3% | 65% | 45% | +1.7% |
| all | 20 | -8.6% | -17.3% | 65% | 45% | +1.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.3% | 45% | +1.7% |
| 10% | -25.2% | 35% | -8.1% |
| 15% | -32.5% | 20% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -39.1% | 15% | -25.1% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$21 | +21% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Jun 08 | $21 | −$13 | -63% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $101 | +$63 | +62% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $250 | +$91 | +36% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | May 27 | $13 | −$13 | -97% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 27 | $15 | −$14 | -97% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | May 27 | $53 | −$52 | -96% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 27 | $200 | +$123 | +62% |
| Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in | May 26 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | May 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | May 18 | $146 | +$8 | +6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $50 | +$38 | +75% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 13 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? | May 12 | $14 | +$1 | +10% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 05 | $50 | +$13 | +26% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $124 | −$124 | -100% |
| Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Apr 28 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Apr 27 | $225 | +$36 | +16% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 25 | $125 | +$39 | +31% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 23 | $123 | +$37 | +30% |