Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2573…2726
sports · 525 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,477 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,467 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$497
Realized−$1,467
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses314 / 199
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions14
Markets (closed)513 / 525
History coverage78d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 14 History 513 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$54
14 days−$500
30 days−$950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Over 57¢ 100¢ $60 $105 +$45 (+75%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 38¢ $101 $71 −$30 (-29%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 46¢ 62¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+34%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $36 $6 −$30 (-82%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 59¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants No 58¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 57¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Karen Khachanov 72¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils 55¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 58¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $0 −$4 -1468%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 +$48 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $61 +$48 +79%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $62 +$40 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $62 −$61 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $133 +$73 +55%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 10 $238 +$154 +65%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $61 +$52 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $61 +$46 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $61 +$39 +65%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $13 +$7 +55%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $61 +$52 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $41 +$32 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $41 +$30 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $41 +$31 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $36 +$46 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $63 −$62 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $141 −$139 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $103 −$102 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $41 −$40 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $41 −$40 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $35 +$25 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $35 +$25 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $43 +$27 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $41 +$28 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $41 +$32 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $35 +$29 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $122 −$121 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $209 −$206 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $76 −$75 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $41 −$40 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $86 −$85 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $91 −$90 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $86 −$85 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $91 +$79 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $91 +$70 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $91 +$70 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $61 −$12 -20%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $101 +$91 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $91 −$90 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $91 −$90 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $101 +$77 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $61 +$41 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$1,372
other 1% −$46
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $61 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $102 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $21 26h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 27h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 27h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 27h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 27h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 27h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $61 44h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $61 45h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 55¢ $61 47h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $61 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $61 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 61¢ $62 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $62 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 64¢ $13 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Athletics 60¢ $238 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $61 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 3d
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 64¢ $133 3d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 57% -11.7%
≤30d 220 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 51% -14.5%
≤90d 513 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 41% -13.9%
all 513 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -13.9%
10% -23.5% 41% -22.2%
15% -30.9% 40% -29.7%
20% -37.7% 37% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.71 · official $496.72 (match) · 932 history records