Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2572…a8a7 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,858 (+82%) realized +$1,569 · open +$289
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$488
14 days+$388
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1,657
other 19% +$189
sports 14% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +134.1% +111.8% 50% 50% +90.0%
≤30d 10 +88.6% +70.7% 40% 40% +32.9%
≤90d 18 +104.5% +85.0% 50% 39% +82.1%
all 19 +93.8% +75.3% 47% 37% +72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.3% 37% +72.4%
10% +58.5% 37% +55.9%
15% +43.2% 32% +40.8%
20% +29.2% 32% +27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +99% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$49 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized+$1,569
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage102d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $104 $306 +$202 (+195%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $204 $291 +$87 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $103 +$362 +351%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$14 +29%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$81 +679%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$10 -20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$122 +239%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $100 −$86 -86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $209 −$8 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $107 +$2 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 +$67 +67%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $400 +$474 +119%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 15 $104 +$1,052 +1011%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $465 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $57 13h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States $21 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $50 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 33¢ $2 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $41 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 42¢ $74 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 29¢ $51 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $96 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 7d
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $107 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $14 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 27d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No $51 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? BUY Yes $50 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 45d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $92 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $109 56d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $109 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $109 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 57d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $167 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.92 · official $596.92 (match) · 40 history records