Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2572…4514 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$434 (+25%) realized +$434 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$424
7 days+$900
14 days+$1,141
30 days+$1,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,509
other 14% −$248
world 7% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +43.9% +30.2% 26% 26% +79.0%
≤30d 25 +47.7% +33.7% 28% 28% +90.5%
≤90d 25 +47.7% +33.7% 28% 28% +90.5%
all 25 +47.7% +33.7% 28% 28% +90.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 28% +90.5%
10% +20.9% 28% +72.3%
15% +9.2% 28% +55.6%
20% -1.5% 28% +40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +111% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$34 · ×7.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage170d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $103 +$563 +549%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on Jun 28 $29 +$79 +272%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $51 +$75 +147%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $41 +$467 +1137%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$282 +550%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$27 +53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $92 +$262 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 45¢ $150 27m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $666 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 15¢ $103 7h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 27h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on BUY 26¢ $29 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $41 3d
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $51 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Franc BUY 27¢ $50 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $21 4d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Morocco w BUY 19¢ $51 5d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 40¢ $51 5d
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ shots AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Azzedine BUY 57¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $15 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs BUY 25¢ $112 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 4.5 Corners AND Will DR Congo win BUY 15¢ $51 6d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. C BUY $129 6d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams BUY 31¢ $102 6d
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6d
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $508 6d
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $41 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $147.57 · 64 history records