Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x256e…dc86 politics 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$5
other 35% −$5
sports 11% −$2
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 71 -5.3% -14.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage380d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 01 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $235 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $69 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 17d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 39d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 122d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $68 139d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $68 145d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 148d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 149d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 150d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 154d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 155d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 156d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 157d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 157d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $72 158d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $71 159d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $71 160d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 160d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 161d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 161d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 161d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 161d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.19 · official $69.19 (match) · 399 history records