Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x256a…ece3 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-2%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%27W / 36L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$74
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$317
politics 25% −$2
crypto 13% −$72
economics 11% −$2
world 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -61.4% -65.0% 20% 20% -47.4%
≤30d 15 -52.6% -57.1% 33% 13% -36.2%
≤90d 36 -18.0% -25.9% 47% 17% -19.9%
all 63 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 11% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 11% -12.2%
10% -27.5% 10% -20.6%
15% -34.5% 10% -28.3%
20% -40.9% 6% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses27 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage155d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$50 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $78 +$32 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $149 −$149 -100%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? May 24 $41 −$12 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $139 +$8 +6%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Alex Consani be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 13 $34 +$70 +202%
Will Ice Spice be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 03 $16 −$6 -40%
Will Lady Gaga be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 03 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $135 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $138 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $128 −$28 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $99 +$37 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $46 +$154 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $98 +$12 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 31 $266 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 24 $264 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 18 $3 +$2 +61%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $343 +$14 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $92 +$2 +2%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 02 $249 −$4 -2%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $76 −$76 -100%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 04 $198 −$69 -35%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 29 $126 −$31 -25%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.09? Jan 25 $47 +$2 +4%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Jan 24 $239 +$18 +8%
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 24 $521 +$41 +8%
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 24 $553 +$16 +3%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 17 $155 $0 +0%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 17 $497 +$18 +4%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 16 $485 +$18 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $78 22d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 22d
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 23d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $155 29d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $63 33d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $77 33d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $148 33d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $148 35d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $48 44d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 44d
Will Alex Consani be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records