Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2569…5d2d crypto 1403 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,038 (-11%) realized −$16,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%668W / 735L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$649
7 days−$538
14 days−$538
30 days−$1,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$12,843
sports 2% −$605
other 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
≤30d 307 -7.1% -15.9% 48% 47% -15.4%
≤90d 1375 -9.1% -17.7% 47% 47% -19.4%
all 1403 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 47% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 47% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 46% -26.1%
15% -32.3% 45% -33.2%
20% -38.9% 44% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$95 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses668 / 735
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1403 / 1403
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1403 Trades
no open positions (212 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$91 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$121 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $43 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$20 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$20 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $69 +$83 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $68 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $68 +$69 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$42 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$23 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$53 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $64 −$32 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$37 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$14 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$38 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records