Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2567…fc9d sports 143 markets active 18h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,381 (+12%) realized +$21,091 · open −$3,710
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$1,014per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1,078est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$11,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,405
7 days−$4,784
14 days−$4,468
30 days+$33,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$24,697
other 38% −$6,150
world 2% −$2,201
crypto 0% −$19
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.3% -18.9% 44% 44% -21.8%
≤30d 41 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 54% +29.9%
≤90d 86 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 48% +6.4%
all 96 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 48% +4.5%
10% -23.9% 48% -5.5%
15% -31.3% 45% -14.6%
20% -38.0% 40% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,432 vs −$916 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$11,290
Realized+$21,091
Unrealized−$3,710
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,078
Open positions47
Markets (closed)96 / 143
History coverage112d
Avg bet$1,014
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5,100 $1,916 −$3,184 (-62%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 73¢ 66¢ $1,000 $913 −$87 (-9%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 93¢ $500 $599 +$99 (+20%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $500 $545 +$45 (+9%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $500 $453 −$47 (-9%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $500 $431 −$69 (-14%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 93¢ $300 $393 +$93 (+31%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 71¢ 42¢ $500 $299 −$201 (-40%)
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 73¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 64¢ 62¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 92¢ $200 $273 +$73 (+36%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 82¢ $200 $266 +$66 (+33%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 61¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $200 $112 −$88 (-44%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,017 +$1,206 +119%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,515 −$1,500 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $480 +$298 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8,420 +$6,685 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,986 +$3,316 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $780 −$769 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $505 +$276 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $207 −$204 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5,060 −$5,000 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $203 +$232 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $102 +$112 +111%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$71 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$337 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $202 +$137 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 09 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $101 +$50 +50%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 159.5 Jun 06 $203 +$184 +91%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 02 $102 +$210 +206%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $204 +$278 +137%
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray May 31 $504 +$173 +34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $27,768 +$23,896 +86%
Turk Telekom vs. Anadolu Efes May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $202 +$131 +65%
Trabzonspor vs. Bahcesehir Koleji May 28 $101 +$60 +60%
Galatasaray vs. Besiktas May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $11,468 +$13,603 +119%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20,316 −$20,122 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 04 $304 +$284 +93%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 04 $101 +$77 +76%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor: Both Teams to Score May 04 $102 +$100 +98%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? May 04 $102 +$221 +216%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5 May 04 $304 +$277 +91%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score May 04 $506 +$288 +57%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $506 +$327 +65%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $505 +$241 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,027 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,017 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2,026 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,515 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $480 41h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $407 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $8,420 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5,986 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $780 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $207 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5,075 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $505 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $4,048 2d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 65¢ $202 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1,012 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 3d
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $203 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $100 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 4d
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $203 5d
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $504 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,290.05 · official $11,290.15 (match) · 200 history records