Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2567…e51d world 42 markets active 10h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$954 (-3%) realized −$159 · open −$795
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$792per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$12,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$560
14 days−$554
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$352
politics 15% +$16
crypto 6% +$76
other 4% −$758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.0% -13.2% 86% 14% -54.5%
≤30d 23 -7.7% -16.4% 74% 13% -11.7%
≤90d 26 -4.4% -13.5% 77% 23% -11.2%
all 26 -4.4% -13.5% 77% 23% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 23% -11.2%
10% -21.8% 4% -19.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$134 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$12,344
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$795
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)26 / 42
History coverage40d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $5,429 $4,953 −$476 (-9%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $4,001 $4,050 +$49 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,231 $1,319 +$88 (+7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $992 $980 −$11 (-1%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 90¢ 52¢ $991 $574 −$417 (-42%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-0%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No 88¢ 87¢ $107 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? No 74¢ 66¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 62¢ 72¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No $15 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-76%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 65¢ 26¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $57 +$11 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $117 +$7 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Jun 13 $56 +$5 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $797 −$586 -74%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $41 +$5 +13%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 07 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 04 $336 +$26 +8%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,641 +$404 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $229 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $53 +$9 +16%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 31 $53 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $163 −$35 -22%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $47 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $128 +$4 +3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 26 $1,866 +$40 +2%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? May 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 22 $4 $0 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 22 $33 −$29 -87%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? May 18 $165 +$26 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 18 $135 +$35 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $0 9h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $0 12h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $0 13h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $0 36h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $0 38h
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 2d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $259 2d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $105 2d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $333 3d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $85 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $205 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $452 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $3 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 92¢ $28 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $66 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 3d
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $17 4d
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? SELL No 66¢ $19 4d
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No $1 4d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL No $30 5d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL No $2 5d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL No $1 5d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL No $3 5d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 5d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $8 5d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,343.87 · official $12,343.87 (match) · 319 history records