Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2567…c723 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-7%) realized −$127 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days−$106
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$82
other 40% −$12
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -13.3% -21.6% 41% 39% -15.3%
≤30d 53 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 38% -14.5%
≤90d 53 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 38% -14.5%
all 53 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 38% -14.5%
10% -25.4% 36% -22.7%
15% -32.6% 30% -30.2%
20% -39.2% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage9d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 36¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$54 +176%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $86 +$34 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$29 +95%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $40 +$7 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 −$52 -93%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 −$5 -9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$11 -35%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$4 +7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$26 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 −$81 -53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$17 -56%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$15 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$24 +117%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$28 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +310%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$62 -75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $61 +$26 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $73 +$22 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$27 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$24 -47%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$28 +138%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 38m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 71¢ $86 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 45h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $47 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $4 46h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 82¢ $40 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $5 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 48¢ $46 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 65¢ $53 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 65¢ $1 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $47 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.32 · official $31.32 (match) · 114 history records