Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2565…8eeb
weather · 47 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day104.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? No 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% −$11
other 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 62¢ $1 23m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 17% -20.3%
≤30d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 17% -20.3%
≤90d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 17% -20.3%
all 42 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 17% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover104.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 17% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 12% -28.0%
15% -34.0% 10% -34.9%
20% -40.5% 7% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 115 history records