Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
25 0x2564…95ca crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$5
crypto 10% +$1
tech 3% +$1
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 56 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage522d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5,366 −$5 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy? Mar 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening Mar 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $37 63d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 122d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 148d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $27 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 150d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 183d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $57 183d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $19 242d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $47 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $60 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 334d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $45 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $26 366d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 367d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.50 · official $88.50 (match) · 117 history records