Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x255c…16df other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$46
sports 25% −$23
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$3
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.1% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage134d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $537 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $341 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $403 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $169 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $680 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $251 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $340 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 20h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 22h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 31h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 41h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $57 45h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.24 · official $56.24 (match) · 1418 history records