Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2555…ec12 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$6
other 40% −$1
crypto 8% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 17% -8.6%
all 44 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.2%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage371d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 +$5 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $1 $0 -32%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 19 $3 $0 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 37h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $70 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $70 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $35 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $35 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records