Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2554…bb52 sports 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%136W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$149
14 days−$216
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$345
other 14% +$178
crypto 13% −$47
world 8% +$76
finance 1% +$17
politics 1% −$3
tech 0% −$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 35% -15.2%
≤30d 270 -7.2% -16.1% 46% 36% -11.9%
≤90d 302 -5.1% -14.2% 45% 36% -10.9%
all 302 -5.1% -14.2% 45% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 36% -10.9%
10% -22.4% 27% -19.5%
15% -29.9% 17% -27.2%
20% -36.7% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses136 / 166
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions11
Markets (closed)302 / 313
History coverage63d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks New York Liberty 66¢ 64¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gleason Eikeri/Gleason 28¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$14 +20%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 21 $5 −$2 -45%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$14 -79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 −$5 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +76%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $1 $0 +65%
ITF Monastir: Matilde Mariani vs Mariia Nozdrachova Jun 20 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +124%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +13%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $11 −$7 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 +$10 +28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $13 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$44 +54%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $7 −$2 -24%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $9 −$2 -28%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $12 −$3 -28%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $8 −$3 -32%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $19 −$6 -33%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $19 −$6 -31%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $39 −$5 -12%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $57 −$16 -27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $82 +$28 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$12 -80%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $18 −$6 -34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$23 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$16 +31%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $0 $0 +54%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $19 −$5 -28%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $18 −$7 -38%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $18 −$6 -34%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $19 +$6 +33%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $13 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $19 −$6 -30%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $19 +$9 +47%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $19 −$7 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$13 +46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $19 +$8 +41%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $20 −$11 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 28¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $76 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $4 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $7 9h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 66¢ $1 10h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 66¢ $16 11h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 66¢ $2 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 12h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $25 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 13h
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Ru Xi Wu SELL Ru Xi Wu 10¢ $3 13h
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 17¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Indiana Fever 53¢ $3 16h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 10¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.23 · official $248.23 (match) · 1116 history records