Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x254f…cf10 crypto 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-10%) realized −$229 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%42W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$18
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$100
crypto 37% −$233
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +44.9% +31.1% 53% 47% +13.9%
≤30d 22 +14.6% +3.7% 45% 41% -10.2%
≤90d 22 +14.6% +3.7% 45% 41% -10.2%
all 211 -21.7% -29.1% 20% 18% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 18% -23.8%
10% -35.9% 17% -31.1%
15% -42.1% 17% -37.8%
20% -47.8% 16% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses42 / 169
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage133d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$42 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$28 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $114 −$83 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $6 +$9 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $40 −$6 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Mar 02 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 28 $9 +$17 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $25 +$75 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 202 Feb 25 $19 −$11 -58%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $6 +$94 +1565%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $149 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 Feb 18 $85 +$66 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.15 (match) · 601 history records