Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x254f…e165 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%38W / 59L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$82
sports 28% +$2
other 15% +$2
politics 10% +$5
economics 9% $0
crypto 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.1% 14% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 4% -11.5%
≤90d 36 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 3% -10.2%
all 97 +0.5% -9.0% 39% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -10.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses38 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage454d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $197 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $87 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $247 −$27 -11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $243 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $337 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $121 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $6 +$1 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $235 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $119 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $105 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $115 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $234 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $115 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $125 −$57 -46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $146 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $119 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $901 +$5 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,889 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $989 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $899 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $243 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $168 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $899 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the Jul 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $1 $0 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 17 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $95 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $62 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $62 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $87 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $70 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $25 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $95 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $87 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $87 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $87 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $85 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $106 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $117 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $119 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $112 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $82 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $123 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $123 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.45 · official $95.12 (match) · 328 history records