Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x254b…7406 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$6
sports 16% $0
politics 8% $0
other 7% −$1
tech 4% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 0% -8.5%
all 46 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage264d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$3 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $49 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Oct 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 06 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $3 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $17 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $36 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $53 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $52 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.40 · official $50.40 (match) · 173 history records