Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x254b…8302 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1
world 24% +$2
sports 23% +$9
politics 18% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -8.7%
10% -20.1% 4% -17.5%
15% -27.8% 2% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage266d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 82¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $51 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 23 $3 $0 +10%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 30 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Dec 11 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $41 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Oct 14 $2 $0 -19%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $30 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $3 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $31 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $31 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $15 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $11 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $30 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 64¢ $4 91d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 174d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 190d
Bowling vs. UMass BUY Bowling 85¢ $6 211d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $6 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.80 · official $33.00 (match) · 186 history records