Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x254a…bc44 other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,289 (+16%) realized +$1,381 · open −$92
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%44W / 43L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$687
7 days+$1,246
14 days+$1,112
30 days+$1,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$154
sports 28% +$837
finance 5% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +50.3% +36.0% 74% 74% +31.2%
≤30d 51 +33.2% +20.5% 65% 63% +13.1%
≤90d 87 +13.5% +2.7% 51% 47% +6.5%
all 87 +13.5% +2.7% 51% 47% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 47% +6.5%
10% -7.1% 37% -3.7%
15% -16.1% 33% -13.0%
20% -24.3% 30% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$54 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$1,381
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses44 / 43
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage80d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 52¢ 44¢ $150 $128 −$22 (-14%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 28¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-55%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 +$18 +344%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$22 +45%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 +$69 +138%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $150 +$77 +52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$59 +117%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$200 +400%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $125 +$147 +117%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $125 +$15 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $150 +$22 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 +$118 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $242 +$126 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $130 +$80 +61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $151 +$116 +77%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $172 +$41 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $300 +$148 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $273 +$152 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $172 +$61 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $405 −$110 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $201 +$38 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $220 +$20 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $150 +$22 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $160 +$107 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $161 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $185 +$35 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $163 +$76 +47%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $170 +$113 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $160 +$28 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $50 +$450 +900%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $111 +$19 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $50 29m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 30m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $59 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $50 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $0 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $100 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $32 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $50 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $17 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $33 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $50 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $34 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.19 · official $158.19 (match) · 531 history records