Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2548…511d
crypto · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 74¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? No 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 54% −$1
crypto 43% −$3
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 14% -16.7%
≤30d 14 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 14% -16.7%
≤90d 14 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 14% -16.7%
all 14 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 14% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 14% -16.7%
10% -21.1% 14% -24.7%
15% -28.8% 7% -31.9%
20% -35.7% 7% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.15 · official $4.15 (match) · 57 history records