Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2546…d582 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-22%) realized −$147 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$57
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$220
other 45% −$60
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 50% -13.7%
≤30d 34 -44.2% -49.5% 29% 29% -57.0%
≤90d 34 -44.2% -49.5% 29% 29% -57.0%
all 34 -44.2% -49.5% 29% 29% -57.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 29% -57.0%
10% -54.4% 21% -61.1%
15% -58.8% 15% -64.9%
20% -62.8% 12% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $239 −$61 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $40 +$7 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $20 −$16 -81%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$20 -39%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 22 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $35 −$21 -60%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $46 −$17 -37%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 21 $20 +$5 +24%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $3 +$13 +436%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 20m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $205 3d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 26¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 7d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $40 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 23¢ $7 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $10 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 SELL Under 10¢ $4 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 11d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 25¢ $15 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $70 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $31 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $20 15d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 79¢ $2 23d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 80¢ $25 23d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 66¢ $14 23d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $10 23d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 23d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $15 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.55 · official $350.55 (match) · 71 history records