Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x2545…f187
crypto · 93 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$258 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$251 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 −$5 -34%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$2 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $2 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $25 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $47 −$28 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $78 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 16 $81 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 16 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $90 −$50 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $1 +$9 +900%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 16 $9 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 16 $80 −$40 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 16 $47 +$11 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 16 $7 −$4 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $8 +$8 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$225
sports 9% −$39
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 7¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 11¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 23h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 25¢ $2 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 16¢ $2 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 50¢ $10 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $8 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 55¢ $16 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 35¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner BUY BALU 24¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 5¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 73¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 70¢ $15 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 8d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 12d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $5 14d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Team WE 35¢ $4 20d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Team WE 23¢ $2 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 22d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 38% -9.2%
≤30d 92 -5.9% -14.8% 30% 30% -36.4%
≤90d 92 -5.9% -14.8% 30% 30% -36.4%
all 92 -5.9% -14.8% 30% 30% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 30% -36.4%
10% -23.0% 29% -42.5%
15% -30.4% 25% -48.1%
20% -37.2% 16% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 356 history records