Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2541…af9d world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$11
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
politics 18% +$2
other 17% −$6
sports 9% $0
economics 3% +$3
finance 2% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 34% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 75 -2.1% -11.4% 40% 3% -9.4%
all 85 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage523d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $117 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $81 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $190 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $64 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $102 −$4 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $51 +$7 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $56 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $76 −$4 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $25 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $84 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $9 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $56 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $56 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $55 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $59 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $59 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.53 (match) · 397 history records