Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x253c…f0a7 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 33L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 28% $0
crypto 10% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 2% +$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 42 -2.2% -11.5% 21% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.1%
10% -20.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jul 06 $17 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 24 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $1 $0 -20%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ipswich Town be relegated? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $11 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $16 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 16h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $3 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $44 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $44 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $19 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $19 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $44 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $44 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $40 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $42 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $23 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.79 · official $33.79 (match) · 132 history records