Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x253b…6fc2 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 34% −$4
politics 14% $0
sports 10% +$1
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +4.7% -5.2% 60% 10% -9.4%
all 35 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage324d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $127 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $46 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $22 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $56 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $61 −$6 -10%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 30 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 30 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $66 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $62 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $66 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $27 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $29 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $56 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $61 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $66.06 (match) · 143 history records