Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x253b…0ae7 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$30,330 (+77%) realized +$30,458 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 100L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$23,743
finance 21% −$316
other 13% +$7,312
economics 2% −$340
world 0% −$50
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 43 -57.4% -61.5% 14% 14% -37.3%
all 125 +87.4% +69.6% 20% 18% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.6% 18% +28.2%
10% +53.3% 18% +15.9%
15% +38.5% 17% +4.7%
20% +24.9% 14% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +236% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,117 vs −$225 · ×9.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,397
Realized+$30,458
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage155d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,525 $1,397 −$128 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 03 $468 −$438 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 01 $516 −$483 -94%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 01 $573 −$573 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $200 −$88 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $430 −$430 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $1,972 +$2,081 +106%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 01 $1,466 −$872 -60%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $310 −$94 -30%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 01 $286 −$286 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 26 $557 −$119 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 22 $422 +$695 +165%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? Apr 21 $60 −$52 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $70 −$50 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 20 $700 −$624 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 20 $814 −$702 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 20 $869 −$747 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 20 $169 −$40 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 20 $465 −$64 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 17 $142 +$53 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 17 $250 −$48 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $1,232 +$447 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $1,798 +$2,224 +124%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 17 $801 −$250 -31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 13 $239 −$123 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $300 −$107 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Apr 03 $2,786 −$2,786 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Apr 03 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Mar 01 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Mar 01 $662 −$662 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 01 $412 −$412 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Mar 01 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 01 $2,606 −$2,606 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 February 9-15? Feb 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,556 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY Yes 3¢ $68 55d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $400 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $516 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $91 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $95 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $150 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 64d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 64d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $219 66d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 67d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $63 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $76 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $112 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,397.07 · official $1,397.07 (match) · 613 history records