Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

25 0x253a…3f67 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$10 (+6%) realized +$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-36.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
≤30d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
≤90d	1	+39.6%	+26.3%	100%	100%	+26.3%
all	2	-30.2%	-36.8%	50%	50%	+5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.8%	50%	+5.5%
10%	-42.9%	50%	-4.6%
15%	-48.4%	50%	-13.9%
20%	-53.5%	0%	-22.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage144d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	48¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$20	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Jan 24	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$10	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.20 · official $100.20 (match) · 5 history records