Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2539…062c crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$188 (-5%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate76%142W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$108
other 12% −$41
sports 4% +$58
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 29% +8.0%
≤30d 62 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 24% -3.1%
≤90d 70 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 23% -4.4%
all 187 -8.0% -16.7% 76% 14% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 14% -12.2%
10% -24.7% 6% -20.6%
15% -32.0% 5% -28.2%
20% -38.6% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses142 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage156d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -83%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Saudi Arabia win o Jun 22 $31 +$51 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$8 +19%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -79%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $8 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $17 +$34 +206%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa Jun 18 $7 +$3 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +26%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 $0 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Exact Score: England 3 - Jun 18 $6 +$6 +100%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $14 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 02 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $19 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $45 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND France leading at halftime BUY 34¢ $36 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Saudi Arabia win o BUY 37¢ $31 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 52¢ $30 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $58 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $54 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $54 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $49 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $35.00 · 592 history records