Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2537…e959 politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-20%) realized −$94 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$33
sports 26% −$7
other 19% +$14
world 14% −$8
tech 7% −$13
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +147.4% +123.8% 100% 100% +107.7%
≤30d 3 +147.4% +123.8% 100% 100% +107.7%
≤90d 3 +147.4% +123.8% 100% 100% +107.7%
all 52 -10.8% -19.3% 21% 15% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 15% -16.2%
10% -27.0% 13% -24.2%
15% -34.0% 12% -31.5%
20% -40.5% 12% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +130% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage488d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Michel Pereira 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $10 +$10 +103%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $15 +$47 +307%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $25 +$8 +32%
Rosas Jr. vs. Morales May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Torres vs. Dober May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Moreno vs. Erceg May 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Mar 21 $10 −$4 -41%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 21 $20 −$9 -43%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? Mar 21 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Mar 21 $20 −$5 -26%
No Data Reported in 2025? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Mar 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 12 $4 −$3 -67%
TikTok sale announced before May? Mar 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Canada remove retaliatory tariffs on USA in March? Mar 12 $16 −$5 -30%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 12 $23 −$11 -47%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Mar 12 $23 −$4 -18%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 12 $41 +$2 +5%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31? Mar 11 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run before July? Mar 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Part Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Turner vs. Bahamondes Mar 09 $9 +$6 +69%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Mar 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Ethereum" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Solana" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode? Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy survive re-entry? Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6? Mar 07 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 06 $36 +$23 +62%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? Mar 06 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $2 $0 -15%
Will the General Services Administration be most efficient on March 31 Mar 04 $6 −$2 -28%
Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July? Mar 03 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday? Mar 03 $7 −$7 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 02 $3 $0 -1%
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? Mar 01 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Feb 27 $5 $0 -10%
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? Feb 27 $4 +$3 +60%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Feb 25 $1 $0 -40%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 25 $1 $0 -10%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Feb 25 $1 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 25 $6 $0 -0%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? Feb 25 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 49m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 53m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Asu Almabayev 100¢ $33 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 75¢ $25 1h
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 31¢ $34 454d
Torres vs. Dober BUY Dober 47¢ $30 454d
Rosas Jr. vs. Morales BUY Morales 18¢ $5 454d
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes $6 463d
US military action against Iran before April? SELL Yes $11 463d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? SELL Yes $15 463d
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL Yes $15 463d
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 463d
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes $20 463d
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 463d
US military action against Iran before April? BUY Yes $20 463d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? BUY Yes $20 463d
Was JFK assassination an inside job? SELL Yes $1 472d
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 472d
TikTok sale announced before May? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 472d
Will Canada remove retaliatory tariffs on USA in March? SELL Yes $6 472d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 472d
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 472d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 40¢ $43 472d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 472d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 473d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL No 40¢ $13 473d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 131 history records