Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2537…f8e1 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$134 (+35%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 20L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$148
other 28% −$8
politics 8% −$6
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -33.0% -39.4% 33% 0% -29.8%
≤90d 13 -29.5% -36.2% 8% 0% -19.1%
all 24 -16.7% -24.7% 17% 12% +22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 12% +22.4%
10% -31.9% 12% +10.7%
15% -38.4% 8% +0.0%
20% -44.5% 8% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$1 · ×43.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.78 per $1 lost it wins $8.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage138d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at May 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $26 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 28 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $1 $0 -10%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $1 $0 -25%
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2026-01-29? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 05 $199 +$150 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 25d
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at BUY No 99¢ $3 25d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $19 55d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 56d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 59d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $11 63d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $11 66d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 67d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $0 72d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 76d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 79d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 13¢ $4 80d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 15¢ $4 84d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $13 85d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $13 88d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 89d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 91d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 84¢ $11 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 86¢ $11 94d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 95d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 98d
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 103d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 104d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 104d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records