Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x252d…c456 crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104,119 (-20%) realized −$109,814 · open +$5,695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%80W / 46L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,825per market
Trades / day183.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$9,113
other 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +45.7% +31.9% 57% 39% -15.2%
≤30d 126 +55.7% +40.9% 63% 36% -15.0%
≤90d 126 +55.7% +40.9% 63% 36% -15.0%
all 126 +55.7% +40.9% 63% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.9% 36% -15.0%
10% +27.4% 25% -23.1%
15% ← realistic here +15.1% 20% -30.5%
20% +3.8% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$692 vs −$1,660 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$117,905
Realized−$109,814
Unrealized+$5,695
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses80 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)126 / 135
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$3,825
Trades / day183.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $12,653 $13,345 +$692 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $12,381 $12,522 +$141 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 60¢ 92¢ $6,540 $10,095 +$3,555 (+54%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $8,641 $10,027 +$1,387 (+16%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 86¢ $8,544 $9,639 +$1,095 (+13%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $7,898 $7,950 +$52 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 53¢ 85¢ $4,489 $7,174 +$2,685 (+60%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $5,739 $5,788 +$49 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $5,435 $5,760 +$325 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $5,580 $5,613 +$32 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $4,666 $5,080 +$414 (+9%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,630 $3,833 +$204 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,762 $3,806 +$44 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,601 $3,754 +$153 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $3,354 $3,455 +$101 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 26¢ $3,344 $2,758 −$586 (-18%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $1,588 $1,567 −$21 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 72¢ 96¢ $1,157 $1,552 +$396 (+34%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $863 $777 −$86 (-10%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $757 $755 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $2,110 $753 −$1,357 (-64%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $422 $428 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? No 94¢ 98¢ $293 $305 +$12 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? No 73¢ 95¢ $227 $295 +$68 (+30%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 46¢ 7¢ $2,045 $293 −$1,753 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 17 $1,286 +$1,874 +146%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 31? Jun 17 $87 −$50 -58%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 17 $6 +$1,491 +24850%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 17 $4,226 −$3,886 -92%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 17 $1,945 +$2,415 +124%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 17 $893 −$893 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31? Jun 17 $187 +$21 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 2? Jun 17 $1,215 −$1,780 -146%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 17 $21 +$353 +1697%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? Jun 17 $122 +$319 +261%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31? Jun 17 $651 +$384 +59%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June? Jun 17 $612 −$612 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on May 31? Jun 17 $15 +$38 +258%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 2? Jun 17 $4,662 −$5,724 -123%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 17 $1,467 +$376 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $1,103 +$338 +31%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,748 +$302 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $423 −$91 -22%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,636 +$44 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $216 +$48 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $318 +$15 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $9,872 −$121 -1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$192 +291%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $7,637 −$7,245 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 15-21? Jun 15 $2,091 −$488 -23%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,712 −$101 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $458 +$9 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $17,986 −$3,038 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9,849 +$3,409 +35%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,265 +$129 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $302 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $7,749 +$1,862 +24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? Jun 15 $13,809 −$2,611 -19%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,508 +$184 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,971 +$6,088 +205%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$27 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$21 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 81¢ $185 28m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $9 29m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 91¢ $1,375 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 91¢ $55 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $174 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $188 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $756 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $86 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 92¢ $2,751 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $14 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 83¢ $76 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY No 33¢ $7 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY No 33¢ $2 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $2 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 75¢ $4 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY No 89¢ $81 8h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 9h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 28¢ $0 9h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 28¢ $1 9h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 26¢ $1 9h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 73¢ $43 9h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $30 9h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $30 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117,905.28 · official $117,792.99 (match) · 3500 history records