Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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25 0x252a…cf81 crypto 1558 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$169 (-1%) realized −$176 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%866W / 691L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$71
14 days+$144
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 52% -19.2%
≤30d 222 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 59% -6.0%
≤90d 560 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 61% -11.1%
all 1557 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 48% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 35% -19.5%
15% -27.2% 29% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses866 / 691
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1557 / 1558
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 61¢ 100¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$11 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$6 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.65 · official $15.88 · 3500 history records