Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x252a…5d60 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$502 (-31%) realized −$489 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$124
world 11% −$182
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-65.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -61.5% -65.1% 25% 25% -28.8%
≤30d 12 -61.5% -65.1% 25% 25% -28.8%
≤90d 12 -61.5% -65.1% 25% 25% -28.8%
all 12 -61.5% -65.1% 25% 25% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.1% 25% -28.8%
10% -68.5% 8% -35.6%
15% -71.5% 8% -41.8%
20% -74.3% 8% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$56 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$489
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $85 $73 −$12 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $38 +$48 +125%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $807 +$135 +17%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $79 +$16 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $185 −$182 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 19m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $87 21m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 26¢ $86 21m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 29m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $471 30m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 14¢ $96 44m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $471 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $79 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $807 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $185 38h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.01 · official $172.01 (match) · 18 history records