Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2529…51f8 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$10
other 33% −$2
politics 18% −$3
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 7% -12.1%
≤30d 33 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 3% -11.7%
≤90d 33 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 3% -11.7%
all 33 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 3% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -11.7%
10% -20.2% 3% -20.2%
15% -27.9% 3% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $12 −$7 -62%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 11 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 10 $22 $0 -1%
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bonzi Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 58m
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 58m
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 59m
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 1h
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $13 4d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $13 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $47 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $51 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 4d
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 88¢ $13 4d
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 88¢ $13 4d
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $60 5d
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $61 5d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 67¢ $10 5d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 67¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 5d
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 SELL No 14¢ $2 5d
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 BUY No 13¢ $2 5d
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 91¢ $9 5d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 93¢ $9 5d
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records