Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2526…25a7 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$19
other 9% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$10
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 13% 0% -10.5%
all 42 -2.6% -11.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage600d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $335 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,351 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,010 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $1,670 −$10 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 53m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 20h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $9 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.17 · official $29.17 (match) · 270 history records